Australia has recorded over 73,000 cases of flu in 2025, tracking above the five-year average, but Australian experts say it's too early to predict the severity of this year's flu season
"In Australia, we've seen increased influenza activity in all jurisdictions in early 2025 when compared to previous years," Professor Patrick Reading from The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, told an AusSMC media briefing.
Professor Reading, who directs one of the World Health Organization's five global influenza tracking centres, said that despite the early surge, the severity of this season will be influenced by a range of factors, including which strains become dominant. The recent flu season in the Northern Hemisphere also offers conflicting clues about what might be heading our way.
"Some countries in the northern hemisphere had a severe 2024/25 influenza season, for example, the US, although others, for example, China, did not," Prof Reading noted.
One concerning trend is clear: Australia's flu vaccination rates remain troublingly low.
"Our influenza vaccination rates in Australia are dire, and they're not improving," said Professor Julie Leask from the University of Sydney.
Data from the National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance showed that by the end of last year's flu season, only 28% of children under five and 62% of people over 65 had received their flu shots. Early 2025 numbers show little improvement.
"32.5% of 65 year and older people have had a flu vaccine [in 2025], so we're not really doing better than the last few years in terms of how we're tracking so far," Prof Leask warned.
Her team is currently running a National Vaccination Insights Project, which is investigating why these numbers are so low, and why people choose to get vaccinated. The data reveals a lack of concern about influenza among Australians.
"It's the kind of underdog of infectious diseases, and people tend to underestimate its severity," she explains.
While we might not be that concerned about the impact of flu on our own health, her research reveals that our sense of altruism, of looking after others, is one thing that might drive people to get vaccinated. Habit also plays a role.
"In fact, you were nine times more likely to want a vaccine in the coming year if you'd had at least one in the past two years," she said. 'Initiating the habit for some people is particularly important. And who can do that best? Healthcare workers."
Misconceptions about the vaccine's safety and benefits also had an impact on their willingness to get the jab. "We need to keep busting those myths, such as that flu vaccine gives you the flu. It doesn't," she said.
Professor Paul Griffin from the University of Queensland explained that after vaccination, people can get symptoms which resemble the flu but might just be from their immune response to the vaccine.
"They may even get the flu shortly after their vaccine, by sheer coincidence, because we know you don't get maximum protection immediately after receiving the vaccine," he said.
He also cautioned that people can catch multiple strains in any given season, and that being young and fit doesn't mean you aren't susceptible. "Even people without high-risk conditions can get severe flu," he said.
Whether Australia faces an above-average flu season or not, the experts unanimously agreed that the time to get vaccinated was now.
"It's always a bad flu season because it's hospitalising and killing people and making them sick. So it doesn't necessarily need to be a record flu season for it to still be important," Prof Leask said.
This article originally appeared in Science Deadline, a weekly newsletter from the AusSMC. You are free to republish this story, in full, with appropriate credit.
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